Five days to go!
Now that Saturday's races are only five days away, all manner of "5-day Forecasts" claim to predict the weather. Not surprisingly, not much has changed since yesterday.
Summary: High around 60F, winds aroud 10 mph, cloudy, maybe some rain.
The really interesting information will start to be available about 50 hours before Saturday(tomorrow evening). That's when the "short-term" models like the NGM, Microcast, and AVN will start to predict Saturday's weather. My experience is that the best prediction is to look at the trends in as many forecasts as possible and compare them to the actual weather the day or day-and-half before the regatta. The computer models especially seem to steadly converge on their final prediction. If a model's predictions aren't consistant from day-to-day, or they don't predict the weather the day or two before the race well, then they're generally not "locked onto" the current weather pattern. Luckly, many of the models use very different mathematical techniques, so it's rare that all of them will be way off (and there are always the human forecasters to watch, too...). FWIW, the weather patterns over the west-coast don't look very tricky, so I'm cautionsly optimistic that we'll have good forcasts a couple of days out.
Cheers,
Geoff S.
Details:
Wunderground (NWS): No change. High temp around 60F. 30% chance of rain. NNW Winds peaking at 11 mph at noon.
MRF (SSEC): No change. High 63F. ~30% chance of rain. Winds 11 knots.
Accuweather: Still predicting a high temp. of 61F, and winds at 12 mph from the NW
WKOW: same old... High 61F, partly sunny.
Summary: High around 60F, winds aroud 10 mph, cloudy, maybe some rain.
The really interesting information will start to be available about 50 hours before Saturday(tomorrow evening). That's when the "short-term" models like the NGM, Microcast, and AVN will start to predict Saturday's weather. My experience is that the best prediction is to look at the trends in as many forecasts as possible and compare them to the actual weather the day or day-and-half before the regatta. The computer models especially seem to steadly converge on their final prediction. If a model's predictions aren't consistant from day-to-day, or they don't predict the weather the day or two before the race well, then they're generally not "locked onto" the current weather pattern. Luckly, many of the models use very different mathematical techniques, so it's rare that all of them will be way off (and there are always the human forecasters to watch, too...). FWIW, the weather patterns over the west-coast don't look very tricky, so I'm cautionsly optimistic that we'll have good forcasts a couple of days out.
Cheers,
Geoff S.
Details:
Wunderground (NWS): No change. High temp around 60F. 30% chance of rain. NNW Winds peaking at 11 mph at noon.
MRF (SSEC): No change. High 63F. ~30% chance of rain. Winds 11 knots.
Accuweather: Still predicting a high temp. of 61F, and winds at 12 mph from the NW
WKOW: same old... High 61F, partly sunny.
posted by Geoff Sobering at 6:10 AM
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