No surprises

By now all the short-term models have predictions for all day Saturday. Interestingly, not much has changed since my first posting.

Summary:

• Temps: cool all day. In the morning, probably around 50F rising to a high around 55F-60F.
• Winds: probably fairly steady all day between 10 mph and the low teens from the Westerly sector.
• Rain/Clouds: probably rain at some point. Almost certainly it won't be brightly sunny.
  

The good news is that the wind will be at worst perpendicular to the shore at the landings, so we should have a fairly sheltered place to rig and congregate.

If you're interested in seeing some real-time data from the area, the UW Space Science building has a set of instruments on it's roof with an applet that updates graphs every 30 seconds (click the "Metrogram" button on this page). Wunderground has data from the airport, as well as a number of personal weather stations around the area. Channel 15 (NBC) also has "Weathernet".

Cheers,

Geoff S.

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Details:

The National Weather Service (NWS via wunderground) is currently predicting the temperature Saturday will start out around 50F, rise to a high just below 60F, then slowly drop to around 55F in the evening. Winds will start at around 5 knots and build slowly over the day to about 9 knots; swinging from the WSW to WNW or NW during the day. A steady 34% chance of rain all day.

The NGM model predicts slightly warmer temps, starting in the mid 50's and peaking around 60F. Steady winds of about 13 knots from the NW all day. A bit higher chance of rain at around 50%.

The AVN model (one of my current favorites) predicts the temps. will start around 50F and rising to a cool 55F, then slowly decline. Winds steady at around 10 knots (my experiece is the AVN under-estimates wind strength slightly) from the NW backing to the West. They don't give precipitation probability numerically, but they show chance of rain in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon.

Accuweather has the temps. starting at 50F and peaking at 57F. Winds 11-12 mph swinging from the WNW to West. Their chance of precipitation bounces between 39% and 57%, but their text interpretation claims only cloudy during the day, with a chance of rain in the early evening.

Microcast (via WKOW) is very pesimistic on temperatures, with 40F (brrrr...) in the morning witha high of 54 in the afternoon. They have the winds mostly steady 11 mph from the NW, with slightly less in the middle of the afternoon. No precip. percentages, but they show a chance of rain all afternoon.